In 2000, the assumption was that Yahoo could capture up to 20% of off line ad dollars within 10 years. Remember Yahoo was valued at around $90 billion at the time? Guess what folks - nothing is completely defensible and least not when it comes to internet destination sites or electronic ad networks. There is no border, there is very little cost to build, and absolutely no end to the upper limit of the supply of internet "space" for content, commerce and advertisements. The only real border or limit that matters is the population of the people consuming the advertising and the return, or lack thereof, on those ad dollars.
Main stream media reporters will keep cheer leading around the idea that Facebook is worth $15 billion or Myspace is worth $65 billion. Entrepreneurs and VCs will continue to conclude correctly that 1) this (media and advertising evolution) is a big and rapidly changing market and 2) the cost of the option* is pretty cheap. When the data comes out in 2009 that 8 out of 10 startup media or ad companies launched between 2006 and 2008 failed, don't be surprised at main stream media when they run stories about how carried away everyone was. Sure, they will run a piece on someone who was publishing gloom and doom too. What they want publish is an analysis of their own collective work showing the lack of critical and independent thinking.
*The option here is that you can build a media company or ad network that has a shot at any meaningful piece of the growing pie.
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