Friday, September 28, 2007

Bay area housing bubble bloggers still frustrated

Folks who understand just a little about economics and can read through the "news" could see a few things in developing in residential real estate in this decade:
1. Individuals investors looking for investment alternatives outside of stocks and bonds.
2. A very liquid mortgage market and an appraisal system that has been, let's just say, imperfect.
3. Homebuilders with capital and available land (or space) in certain markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida, San Diego, etc.
4. Employment and wage data, while noisy quarter to quarter and carrying significant variances from region to region, that has been overall quite stable and relatively strong. Certainly in the major job center markets, labor has been tight.
5. Relative to jobs and wages, there has not been an oversupply of residential real estate (whether for rent or for sale) in major employment centers like San Francisco, Silicon Valley, and Manhattan.

The most famed bloggers focused on housing, are hosted and "led" by Mr. Patrick Killelea who, according to an article by the San Francisco Chronical reportedly rents a 3 bedroom in Menlo Park. The article says that Killelea works as a contractor and takes a substantial time away from work which, all else equal, must make it difficult for Mr. Killelea to obtain the same type of mortgage financing available to comparably skilled workers who collect a W2. Mr. Killelea and the other bubble watchers do not view consuming housing the same as they view consuming a car or a cup of coffee, which is fair enough. Housing is a big investment for most people and it is absolutely fine to attempt to quantify and separate consumption features from opportunity cost features for housing.

But what is wrong with the bubble bloggers? With all this blood in the streets, why are they still blogging? Reportedly, Killelea spends most of his time on his blog and it generates about $1,000 per month in advertising - this seems like a relatively low return on investment if we are to believe that the man earns $100 per hour. Maybe these bloggers are still blogging because they live in the bay area. By their arguments, these bloggers imply a personal conflict between not being able to afford the properties that they really aspire to live in and the simultaneous refusal to live in a community where houses are so cheap that it costs less to own them then to rent.

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